Abstract
Yukon has experienced rapid anthropogenic climate change in recent decades. There are few tools available to forest resource managers to assess the degree to which climate change may alter forest ecosystems. I investigate how a multi-scale bioclimate classification system can be used as a tool to assess magnitude of ecological change using a bioclimatic envelope approach. I ask two research questions: (1) What are the climatic variables that separate bioclimate regions; and (2) Has the distribution of climate variables associated a bioclimate zones shifted in the last 30 years? In Yukon, higher latitude Subarctic Woodlands and mid-elevation Boreal High bioclimate regions demonstrated the greatest bioclimatic shift between 1961-1990 and 1991-2016. Over the last 30 years, nearly 50% of the Boreal High region is associated with climate characteristics typical of lower latitude and elevation Boreal Low regions. I’ve shown that bioclimate envelope modelling is effective method to identify areas of climatic change using the known relationship of ecosystems and their associated climate. Results of this research can be used to identify areas that may be prone to climate-related ecological change at the local and regional scale; and target these areas for monitoring changes to biological processes such as regeneration, mortality, and growth rate.